The anti-Quebec thread

So, there is an element of anti-Quebec sentiment among the myriad positions against the deal to sell NB Power to Hydro-Québec. Surprise, surprise!

The Premier of New Brunswick wound up apologising in the Legislative Assembly for saying exactly that. Yet, his apology was simply to atone for speaking a truth that was better left untold, at least by politicians.

A regular reader asked me to write about the issue since he knows I live in New Brunswick. It’s a difficult challenge because no final deal has been tabled yet, and listening to the experts disagree doesn’t really help either. The fact is different people oppose the current NB Power / Hydro-Québec memorandum of understanding (MOU) for different reasons.

Some people are opposed to anything. If it’s selling NB Power, they’ll object. If it’s to not sell NB Power, they’ll oppose that, too.

Then, there is the anti-French factor, still alive and well in New Brunswick. They will not sell to Quebec because Quebec is French. People continue to blame their misfortunes on bilingualism, and point to oil-rich Alberta as an example of what we could be if all public service and government business were conducted in English in New Brunswick.

Other opponents object to the sale of our public utility to Hydro-Québec not because Quebec is French, but because Quebec could eventually separate from Canada. (The fact that Quebec will always be our neighbour barring a major geological event does not seem to be on their radar.)

Others fear that because Hydro-Québec will be generating the power and overseeing the distribution network, New Brunswick will have given up its sovereignty over domestic energy issues, especially with respect to power rate increases. There are clauses in the MOU dealing with this, but concerns remain in the minds of many. In fact, although they object to the sale of NB Power, they aren’t against the idea of buying power from Hydro-Québec.

Finally, some have no problem with selling NB Power but want guarantees as to what is to come after the first five years of the agreement. At this time, we know residential, commercial and wholesale rates will not go up for five years, but the protections for the years after, which tie rate increase to inflation, haven’t reassured this group of people. Some are driven by concerns for social justice since the rates will be frozen for residents and most small businesses, but drastically reduced by 30 percent for large industrial clients.

Those who support the agreement tend to be less divided as to their reasons for supporting it. Hydropower is cheap to produce and the quantity of resulting greenhouse gas emissions is very low. By signing this agreement with Quebec, large industrial customers and the people who work for them will benefit from rates that NB Power alone could never have offered. As for the others, including residential customers, the current rates will not change for five years, thereby avoiding yearly three percent increases for each of the first five years.

Obviously, not everything is rosy. Some experts say Quebec’s electrical production is heavily subsidized, and if customers had to pay the actual cost of production, rates would increase substantially. Some would like to see this happen as there is currently no incentive to reduce consumption. But if rates were to increase dramatically in Quebec, what would this mean for New Brunswick? Since this isn’t covered in the MOU, it’s hard to say.